When is foreclosure data just the tip of the iceberg?

Check out the article below from DSNew.com. It shows that the date out there concerning foreclosures only gives you the "small picture" of what is really going on in the market place. Don't get me wrong but content providers like Foreclosure Radar can only report the data. They may not be a good source of interpretation of that data. The same goes for writers. Read on and check out my conclusions:

Record Number of Foreclosures Cancelled in California

07/13/2010 By: Carrie Bay

The number of foreclosure sales that were cancelled in California hit an all-time record in June, according to a report released Tuesday by ForeclosureRadar, a locally based company that tracks every foreclosure in the state and provides daily auction updates.

The company characterized foreclosure activity in the Golden State as “mixed” last month, with filings of new foreclosure notices on the rise and foreclosure sales down. That assessment follows two straight months in which ForeclosureRadar reported declines across-the-board at every stage of the foreclosure process.

In total, 10,506 foreclosures were cancelled in California last month before reaching the auction sale phase, according to ForeclosureRadar’s market data. The figure represents a 27 percent increase from May and is 153 percent higher than in June 2009. ForeclosureRadar explained that the increase was primarily driven by just one lender, JP Morgan Chase and its acquisition of Washington Mutual loans.

Notices of Default filed against delinquent homeowners – the first step in the foreclosure process – edged up nearly 7 percent from May to June, ForeclosureRadar reported, but were down more than 45 percent compared to June 2009.

Notice of Trustee Sale filings, which serve as the homeowner’s final notice before the home is auctioned, increased on both a monthly and annual basis in June. Compared to the previous month, filings were up nearly 22 percent, and were nearly 12 percent above year-ago levels.

During the month of June, ForeclosureRadar tracked a total of 25,790 new Notices of Default and 34,261 Notices of Trustee Sale.

“Historically it is very unusual to have more Notice of Trustee Sale filings than Notices of Default,” said Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. “But with skyrocketing cancellations and the possibility of failing loan modifications, this will be increasingly common, as lenders are only required to file a Notice of Trustee Sale to restart the foreclosure process.”

ForeclosureRadar’s data shows that banks took back 10,506 properties in June, nearly 24 percent fewer than they did in May. The company puts California’s total REO inventory at 85,135 homes, down from 87,964 in May and nearly 20 percent lower than it was a year ago.

The number of properties purchased by third parties at auction dropped significantly in June to 2,983, but they purchased nearly the same percentage of the total properties sold, and at a better discount to market value than ForeclosureRadar says it’s seen in months. Last month, the average bid amount on a home sold at foreclosure auction in California was 18.9 percent below market value.

So what does all this mean.

In my humble opinion, it means that the people out there dealing with foreclosures are scratching and clawing along trying to hold off that trustee sale. Many factors go into it.

Owners are working through the loan mods, short sales and the economy.

Investors trying to find the best deals in the foreclosure arena.

Regular buyers trying to get a loan and competing in the market place with the "all cash" investors.

Banks, to their credit, working through the loan mods, short sales, and federal guide lines. I also think that you have to throw in the bank interaction with their investors and their expectations for the return on their investment. [The mention of Chase and WAMU loans being a significant factor is dead on. The "FDIC shared loss agreement" component in that equation is having a significant effect in the statistics and accumulative, long term costs.]

I'd like to tell a quick story. I received a call recently from a long time friend and client. He told me that he saw information on Foreclosure Radar that there was a home in Clayton (a nearby town) with an estimated sales price of $250k. He says he wants to buy this home for $250k because he says it's worth at least double that.

I tell him that's great, but the information on the website was not an offer to sell the property for that amount, but just a snippet of information contained in the public record for a notice of default recently filed against the property. It didn't mean the property would be foreclosed on. It didn't mean the property would come up for normal sale, short sale, trustee sale, or at all.

My friend said to me that he thought I was just lazy and probably would try to buy it myself now that I knew about it.

Through subsequent conversations I finally got through to him that the information he was receiving was "just the tip of the iceberg" and he should learn more about the whole foreclosure process. We are going to the courthouse next week to watch the trustee sales there. Oh joy!

So I guess the bottom line is that information and data is good but you should make sure you have the whole picture. Consult a realtor. We can help. We are living this stuff.