Not enough of a good thing..

We are rapidly approaching the end of the first time buyers tax credit program. I know it has had an impact on my business. I also know that it will help many of my clients pocketbooks. Not to mention the Sellers, agents, lenders, title companies, appraisers, inspectors, etc, etc.

We've heard alot about extending the program. We've heard alot about a new program for all homebuyers. It looks like we are done with it.

Just another case of not enough of a good thing. Check out this article from USA Today.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-10-20-white-house-home-tax-cred_N.htm?csp=34

I guess someone reached into Uncle Sam's pocket and it was empty.

Let me know what you think about the program and if it is/was worthwhile.

Mark Wilson

Check out my website at: www.bigmark.net Let me know what you think, search for listings (even commercial) with the best real estate search engine in the business, follow me on Twitter, see YouTube videos, and check out all of the great content.

Commercial Real Estate Market decline slows according to the NAR.

Being a hybrid realtor, working with commercial and residential clients, I've noticed a lot of similarities between the two markets.

With this latest decline, people are loosing their jobs, businesses are closing. Property values are declining, short sales are happening, and foreclosures have hit both markets. Many sources tell you that the worst is yet to come. There are significant numbers of mortgages in jeopardy.

As I'm proof reading this, I'm getting depressed. I have many friends and clients who are feeling the "pinch". But there may be some good news out there. We are hearing that the residential market may have hit bottom. Here is a press release from the National Association of Realtors that identifies some positive trends in the commercial market too. Check it out:

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/08/decline_slowing

It says the trend of decline in the commercial real estate market is slowing. That may or may not be a long term trend. I hear talk about commercial foreclosures around the corner.

If you have read any of my blogs in the past you may be able to guess what the theme of my comments will be... (I'll try to keep it short)

The commercial market has certainly been affected by the recession. Less in the economy means less jobs which means more businesses closing which means more vacancies which means less rent which means less ability to make mortgage payment which means investment portfolios are smaller which means... you get the idea.

One tool that the residential market has has some success with is loan modification.

I see loan mods helping the commercial markets as well. Work it from the bottom up... If a landlord can get a loan mod, they can negotiate with a tenant who may be having troubles to lower their rents which may help keep the business in operations which means jobs can be saved which means more cash in the economy. I think?? Or the banks can foreclose and become landlords, or try to sell investment properties in a down soft market. Which means... for another blog.

Let me know what you think...

Zillow traffic is through the roof. I'll bet their value for your home is off!

I get this all the time... Zillow says that this house sold for $X. Zillow says that 12345 Main St. is for sale. Just 'cause Zillow says it doesn't make it so...

Here is an article from PR Newswire giving traffic statistics for Zillow. They are quite impressive.

Zillow.com(R) Traffic Grows 67 Percent Year-over-Year in First Half 2009

Amid real estate market uncertainty, homeowners, buyers and sellers turning to Zillow(R) in record numbers for research and advice

SEATTLE, July 1 /PRNewswire/ -- Real estate Web site Zillow.com today announced it broke multiple records for site traffic and user activity in the first six months of 2009. An average of 8.3 million unique users visited Zillow each month during this period, which is an increase of 67 percent year-over-year(i). Additional milestones include: 44 percent year-over-year growth in page views in the first half of 2009. 35 percent more for-sale listings on the site in the first half of 2009 versus a year earlier, as the result of more listings feed partnerships with brokerages and Multiple Listings Services. In total, 3.6 million listings are posted on Zillow today. More than 535,000 people have downloaded the Zillow iPhone App since its launch in late April, more than any other real estate-related app. Consumers submitted 265,000 loan requests on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace in the first six months of 2009. Lenders responded with 3.5 million custom loan quotes during this same period. "Home prices continue to drop in many areas, mortgage rates change constantly, and people have a lot of questions about their homes and their local markets. This is driving record numbers of people to visit and engage on Zillow.com," said Spencer Rascoff, Zillow's chief operating officer. "In addition to seeking real estate listings and data, potential buyers and sellers are voracious for information and are asking questions in Zillow Advice, and getting answers from real estate professionals in their communities." The Zillow Directory of real estate professionals now lists nearly 200,000 real estate agents, and more than 12,000 lenders who have created a profile and are active on the site. In fact, 25 percent of Zillow's monthly traffic - or 2.1 million unique visitors in June - self-identified as a real estate professional. If you've read this far you probably are impressed. I am. The question is... Why aren't these people asking realtors? Well maybe they are. I know I say "don't trust Zillow for anything but a ballpark guestimation." "Go to my website and search the MLS. It will give you better results." What do you think of Zillow? Please visit my website at: www.bigmark.net You'll find many great resources to help you navigate the real estate world. World class search engine, smart phone application, YouTube, Twitter and other helpful things. Visit or give me a call today. Mark Wilson - J Rockcliff Realtors, Inc. (925) 890-6400 mark@bigmark.net

Reasearch shows that as many as 25% of Foreclosures are from people who can afford their payments

Here is an interesting article from Market Watch. It says that as much as 25% of foreclosures are from people that can afford thier payments. Check this out:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-those-who-can-pay-walk-away-from-mortgages?siteid=rss

Here are a few of my thoughts about the article.

With 25% of defaults are made by people that can "afford" their payments. These people are taking a calculated loss approach to their equity, credit, and housing. I can't say if they are right or wrong.

Many don't have another option. They can afford rent. Probably can sustain the hit to their credit for a few years too. Who knows there may be amnesty in the future.

Many banks are taking the Jessie James (of West Coast Chopper fame) approach with their customers. Jessie James has a "Pay Up Sucker" tatoo on the palm of his right hand.

Doesn't matter what the rate is. Doesn't matter what the property value is. Doesn't matter that the neighbor hasn't made a payment in 10 months and is still in the property.

Hopefully the federal TARP for loan mod programs will give these people another option. Get a loan mod to lower their loan balance and payment. The borrower stays in the house. The lender continues to get payments. No foreclosure, no further excessive devaluation of the property. The bank gets some relief.

Lenders currently offering voluntary loan mods to their customers are showing a much lower foreclosure rate that the JJ lenders. Many have learned throughout this process that it makes better scenes to mod than kicking the customer to the curb.

I have even seen commercial lenders in the market place trying this approach with heavily leveraged commercial property owner. Mod the rents, mod the payments, mod the loan. Again a more equitable solution than taking the property.

And a better use of federal funds than creating bigger government. (No offense to Jessie James)

What do you think?

Fears about the future for the Commercial Real Estate Market

In this era of challenging times, there is no lack of people taking a "gloom and doom" outlook on the future. Weather it is the economy, politics, real estate, money....everything.

I guess it's only human nature. I could go on and on about this topic, but I think there is an important "silver lining" we can draw from these time.

First, I'd like to show you an article from Time. It illustrates some concerns about the Commercial real estate market. The premise is that we are about to see... I think you should read the article.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1901718,00.html?xid=rss-business

Ok, so there are some challenges ahead in the Commercial Market. But the "silver lining" I mentioned is that we are learning.

Realtors are learning. We are learning ways to put deals together. (no deals, no food) Banks are learning how to deal with loan modifications, foreclosed properties, and short sales more efficiently. (something is better than nothing) Consumers are learning that there are opportunities out there to achieve their real estate goals.

The article from Time assumes that the Commercial Market will suffer the same mis-steps and mistakes of the past residential decline. My contention is that the Commercial Market will have learned from the residential experience.

Banks know now that it is better for them (and consumers) to work together to solve the problems a declining economy brings. My guess is that they will modify, modify, modify. Working with the consumer to modify their loans, re-negotiate rents, short sale properties can help minimize bank losses. Consumer losses too.

I also guess that there are alot of smart people in the market. Many have experienced these things first or second hand. I'm hopeful that the Commercial Market will not suffer from the same mis-step and mistakes.

What do you think?